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If not addressed in time, climate change is expected to exacerbate Nigeria’s current
vulnerability to weather swings and limit its ability to achieve and sustain the objectives
of Vision 20:2020 [as defined in http://www.npc.gov.ng /home/doc.aspx?mCatID=68253].
The likely impacts include:
• A long-term reduction in crop yields of 20–30 percent
• Declining productivity of livestock, with adverse consequences on livelihoods
• Increase in food imports (up to 40 percent for rice long term)
• Worsening prospects for food security, particularly in the north and the southwest
• A long-term decline in GDP of up to 4.5 percent
The impacts may be worse if the economy diversifies away from agriculture more slowly
than Vision 20:2020 anticipates, or if there is too little irrigation to counter the effects of
rising temperatures on rain-fed yields. Equally important, investment decisions made on the basis of historical climate may be
wrong: projects ignoring climate change might be either under- or over-designed, with
losses (in terms of excess capital costs or foregone revenues) of 20–40 percent of initial
capital in the case of irrigation or hydropower.
Fortunately, there is a range of technological and management options that make sense,
both to better handle current climate variability and to build resilience against a harsher
climate:
• By 2020 sustainable land management practices applied to 1 million hectares can offset
most of the expected shorter-term yield decline; gradual extension of these practices to
50 percent of cropland, possibly combined with extra irrigation, can also counter-balance
longer-term climate change impacts.
• Climate-smart planning and design of irrigation and hydropower can more than halve
the risks and related costs of making the wrong investment decision.
The Federal Government could consider 10 short-term priority responses to build
resilience to both current climate variability and future change through actions to
improve climate governance across sectors, research and extension in agriculture,
hydro-meteorological systems; integration of climate factors into the design of irrigation
and hydropower projects, and mainstreaming climate concerns into priority programs,
such as the Agriculture Transformation Agenda.
- Published on: 2013-06-19
- Released on: 2013-06-19
- Format: Kindle eBook
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